It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
