A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
